Thursday, November 09, 2006

65% Accuracy Rate in 2006 Election Predictions

I was right that Democrat incumbent Gov. Janet Napolitano would cruise to victory but I was wrong that Republican gubernatorial candidate Len Munsil would break through the 40% barrier… very pathetic showing for a red state. Munsil’s percentage statewide wasn’t higher than nativist GOP CD8 nominee Randy Graf's total in his district.

I was also wrong that CD5 incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) would best Harry Mitchell (D).

Sen. Jon Kyl beat Democrat Jim Pederson by 9 points rather than my predicted 6 percent... I’m counting that as a right prediction.

Arizona Propositions:

Right -- Proposition 100 wins.
Wrong (maybe) -- Proposition 101 loses. It’s very close, still waiting on all early ballots to be counted
Right -- Proposition 102 wins.
Right -- Proposition 103 wins.
Right -- Proposition 104 wins.
Right -- Proposition 105 loses.
Right -- Proposition 106 loses.
Wrong -- Proposition 107 wins. Amazing, the first state in the nation to reject a Marriage Protection Amendment. Proponents over-reached and voters did not want to take away existing domestic partner benefits.
Right -- Proposition 200 loses.
Right -- Proposition 201 wins.
Right -- Proposition 202 wins.
Right -- Proposition 203 wins.
Right -- Proposition 204 wins.
Wrong -- Proposition 205 wins. Wow. The goofy Prop. 200 voter lottery question did better than this one.
Wrong -- Proposition 206 wins (with more votes than Proposition 201.) I guess those disclosure requirements that highlighted R.J. Reynolds’ support sunk this one despite the $8+ million spent by them.
Right -- Proposition 207 wins.
Right -- Proposition 300 wins.
Right -- Proposition 301 wins.
Right -- Proposition 302 loses.

My prediction that the “big story of the evening” would be that the GOP would do better than expected. Well, move along, nothing to see here.

Maryland GOP Senate nominee Mike Steele did not win and take a Democratic Senate seat.

PA’s Santorum, OH’s DeWine, RI’s Chafee did all lose GOP seats. But so did MO’s Talent, MT’s Burns and VA’s Allen. I was right on TN’s Corker holding a GOP seat. So my Democratic net gain of 2 in the U.S. Senate was short by 4.

Democrats did take the U.S. House and with more than my predicted 20-seat pick up... I’m counting that as a right prediction.

AZ’s John Shadegg is running for minority whip. That prediction still might come to fruition.

So as I count it, I was right on 22 of 34 prediction with the Shadegg leadership pick still outstanding.

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